How scoring works

For a yes/no question where you forecast probability p:

score = ln(p)      if it happens
score = ln(1 − p)  if it doesn't

This is a proper scoring rule: reporting your true belief maximizes your expected score, mathematically. Overclaiming confidence to game the system loses points on average. Multiple-choice questions use ln(p[correct]); numeric questions score your 10/50/90 percentile estimates with pinball loss — closer and tighter is better.

Probabilities are clipped to [0.001, 0.999], so a wrong 100% call is very painful but not infinitely fatal.

Every day at midnight UTC, from a question opening until it locks, we snapshot your latest forecast and score it once the outcome is known. Your question score is the average across all snapshot days.

question score = mean(score at each daily snapshot)

Consequences, by design:

• Call it correctly on day 1 and that good score accrues every remaining day. Day-29 snipers collect a single day's credit.
• Updating after news is always worth it — your forecast is live, not one-shot.
• Days before your first submission score at the baseline (50% for yes/no, uniform for multiple choice), so skipping is never better than guessing.

Submissions close at each question's lock time — the window where the outcome is effectively public. Locked means locked: the API rejects late entries.

relative score = your score − field median (same question, same day)
season score   = sum of relative scores

Subtracting the median neutralizes question difficulty: everyone tanking a hard question hurts nobody, and beating the crowd on it pays. The leaderboard sums relative scores across the season.

To appear on the leaderboard you must answer at least 70% of the season's questions — cherry-picking a few easy wins doesn't qualify.

Every question states its resolution source and criteria up front, verbatim, before it opens. If a question turns out to be unjudgeable, it's voided and removed from scoring entirely.